Commercial vehicles are heavily subsidized and rely on foreign investment to absorb the middle - and high-end passenger car market

2019-12-02
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  Domestic production and sales of new energy vehicles surged again in October. Data from the ministry of industry and information technology showed that China produced 50,700 new energy vehicles, an eight-fold increase year on year. Separately, sales of new-energy vehicles hit a monthly high of 34,316 in October, up fivefold from a year earlier, according to the China association of automobile manufacturers.
  The popularity of the market has exceeded industry expectations. In its recent research report, zheshang securities set a sales target of 330,000 new energy vehicles in 2015, up 32 percent from the previous forecast. According to industry estimates, new energy sales of 500,000 vehicles by next year should be "completely stress-free."
  In just two years, China has surpassed the United States to become a major market for new energy vehicles. According to the national plan, the number of new energy vehicles will reach 5 million by 2020.
  In addition to the data, the use of new energy vehicles are also breaking through, and new business models are emerging. Cui dongshu, secretary general of the all-china travel association, released a set of data at the "2015 3rd lithium battery new energy industry international summit forum". In 2012, new energy vehicles were mainly in operation, tourist passenger transport and non-operation sectors. At that time, 23 percent of the vehicles were used for rental and passenger transport. In 2012, non-operating vehicles accounted for only 73 percent of total sales, but this year they have accounted for 94 percent. The private market for new energy vehicles has made some progress. At the same time, the market for new energy leasing model is emerging.
  However, cui dongshu also believes that, "from a calm perspective, the advantages of the domestic new energy automobile industry are local, and the overall situation is still a certain gap compared with the overseas mainstream auto companies." From the data, in the second half of this year, the surge of the domestic new energy vehicle market is partly due to the promotion of new energy commercial vehicles. In the first eight months of this year, the all-electric commercial vehicle market surged nearly eight times year on year, much higher than the passenger vehicle market.
  From the perspective of purchasing motivation, for countries like the United States, the driving factors for purchasing new energy vehicles are mainly market factors, such as the level of oil price, while for China, they are completely driven by policies. For example, in cities with and without purchase restrictions, the market acceptance of new energy vehicles is quite different. New energy commercial vehicles reflect the trend of "subsidy", around the "carrot" of subsidies and move.
  From the perspective of the market pattern, the trend of domestic new-energy vehicles is relatively obvious. In the model field, with the liberalization of local subsidy policies, foreign brands are looking for opportunities to seize the market. In terms of plug-in hybrid power models, although byd overtook the Chevrolet Volt in sales in the first nine months of the year, domestic automakers still can't compete with the likes of tesla and nissan leaf in single-model sales in the all-electric segment.
  In the pure electric vehicle segment, the A00 class (micro) and A0 class (small) are growing rapidly. Data from the China passenger federation show that 6,513 a00-class pure electric cars were sold in September, and 30,800 were sold in the first nine months of this year, up 73 percent year on year. Sales of a0-class pure electric vehicles reached 2,641 units, a total of 17,100 units from January to September, a year-on-year increase of 818 percent. In contrast, the sales volume of pure electric a-class cars and b-class cars accounted for A relatively small proportion. In the first September, A total of 5,462 pure electric cars were sold, while only 189 b-class cars were sold. In 2012, pure electric vehicles accounted for only about 0.2 percent of the A00 class (mini) market. By the first three quarters of this year, that figure had risen to 16 percent. In October, the sales volume of domestic new energy vehicles ranked the first is such an A00 class model such as gillikandy panda.
  So in a sense, domestic pure electric vehicles are still gaining market economically, although this depends largely on the consumption characteristics of Chinese consumers. However, it should also be noted that while small cars such as condi, zotye and zhidou occupy the market with their cost performance, foreign companies including BMW, Volvo and Volkswagen are accelerating their market share. Cui dongshu believes that if domestic auto companies can not make arrangements in the market, then the consumption pattern of the whole new energy market in the future will be similar to the traditional car market. The market is dominated by joint ventures or foreign investment, while independent brands can only hover in the middle and low end of the market.
  At the same time, there are still some problems in the industry chain and marketization of electric cars. Cui dongshu said, for example, the development of the current market car pile does not match, the existing car pile ratio is only 6:1, and open to private users less than 20 percent, and the current charging pile compatibility is not high. Secondly, the development of new energy industry in various regions is unbalanced and lack of sustainable business model.
  Meanwhile, yu huigen, chief engineer of baic new energy automobile co., LTD., also said that the industry chain has not yet formed a resultant force. In his view, if companies in various segments can form a joint force, it can not only lead to the regulation of the whole industry, but also reduce costs through scale.

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